ATMOS/GEOG 421 /GEOL 481/ NRES 422
"MODELING
EARTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS”
Instructors: Prof. George
Gertner, NRES, W-503 Turner Hall, 333-9346 gertner@staff.cso.uiuc.edu
Prof. Bruce Hannon, Geography Dept., 220 Davenport Hall, 333-0348 b-hannon@uiuc.edu
Dr. Stephen Hurst, Geology Dept., 419 Natl. History Bldg., 333-0205 shurst@uiuc.edu
Prof.
Tracy Twine, Atmos. Science Dept., 110 Atmos Sci., 333-7105 twine@uiuc.edu
Room/Time: 22 ACES Library. Wednesdays, 5:00–8:00
p.m.
Website: <http://web.aces.uiuc.edu: 8080/~geog421>
Welcome to "Modeling Earth and Environmental Systems”. In
this course you will build and use models of climatic, hydrologic,
geochemical, and human systems, explore the basic concepts of systems
modeling, use models to test hypotheses, and find out about the assumptions
and approximations that must be made in modeling. Your models
will be constructed using the STELLA and VENSIM modeling software on
PCs. STELLA and VENSIM offer an intuitive approach to modeling, so
that prior experience with computer modeling is not a prerequisite
for this course.
Why learn about models and modeling? First, because
models have become the primary research tool in trying to understand and make
predictions about earth and environmental systems. Many of you will use
models in your future research. At the very least your research will be motivated
by and informed by results from models, Secondly, because decision-makers use
models, and their decisions affect directly how you, and everyone else, lives
their lives.
Modeling is learned by doing. So, this is a course where
you will spend most of your time building and using models. The goals
are several:
- to understand how models are constructed and used, what assumptions
must be made, which results are robust and which are deserving of
skepticism...
- to grasp the fundamental systems concepts that underlie all models:
fluxes and reservoirs, positive and negative feedbacks, open and
closed systems...
- to gain basic modeling skills that can be applied in your own research...
- to learn about the basic principles that govern the systems we
model here: the climate, the hydrologic cycle, pollution, biogeochemical
cycles, and the sustainability of human activity on the earth…
- to learn how to calibrate and validate models and check the sensitivity
of parameters.
Coursework
Modeling assignments
These
will assigned and discussed in class, and class time will be provided
for working on them. In general, you will work in teams on
the models. Brief reports documented with models and model output
will be turned in and graded.
Reading
There
will be frequent short reading assignments from Ford's book, and
Meadows et al. will be covered one chapter per week, starting
September 27.
Final exam
The exam will test your ability to construct and analyze models similar
to, but not the same as, those you have built during the course of
the semester.
Grading
Your course grade will be based on four components, weighted as listed
below. The success of this course depends upon your active engagement
(which, of course, requires that you show up!) so we will also assess
your attendance and class participation. Plus/minus grades will be
assigned.
Modeling
assignments (5-6) 60 %
Final Exam 20
Quizzes 10
Participation/Presentation 10
Texts
Modeling the Environment: An Introduction to System Dynamics
Modeling of Environmental Systems, by Andrew Ford, 1999, Island
Press (Required)
A "nuts and bolts" introduction to modeling
dynamical environmental systems. There will be frequent reading assignments
from this book throughout the term. Use the appendices! Ford’s
appendices A & B review units of measurement and some basic math.
Appendix C covers the basics of using STELLA, Appendix H describes
some useful special functions that are available in STELLA, Appendix
E describes VENSIM, and Appendix J covers comprehensive sensitivity
analysis with VENSIM.
Limits to Growth: The 30-year Update, by Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers,
and Dennis Meadows, 2004, Chelsea Green Publ. Co. (Required)
Introduces the ideas behind the World3 model, and describes what this
model tells us about the future of human society. Chapters will be
assigned weekly during the latter two thirds of the semester. You are
not, however, required to agree with the book.
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, by Jared
Diamond, 2005, Viking (Recommended)
A brilliant application of systems thinking, if not systems modeling,
applied to the fundamental issue of what makes a human society sustainable,
or not. This book is essential reading for any educated person in the
21st century.
Schedule*
Date Topic Principal
instructor Reading
30 Aug Intro/STELLA
tutorial All/Hannon
6 Sep STELLA
tools Hurst F
Chap 1, App. C
13 Sep Hydrology Hurst/Hannon
F Chap 2
20 Sep Carbon
cycle Hurst F
Chap 3 & 4
27 Sep Carbon
cycle Hurst F
Chap 5
MRM
Chap 1
4 Oct Climate Twine F
Chap 10,
MRM
Chap 2
11 Oct Climate Twine F
Chap 21,
MRM
Chap 3
18 Oct Climate Twine MRM
Chap 4
25 Oct VENSIM tutorial Gertner F
App. E, Ch7, pp 182-188
MRM
Chap 5
1 Nov Simple
Sensitivity Gertner F
Chap 15, + pp 188-208
MRM
Chap 6
8 Nov Comprehensive
Sensitivity Gertner F
Chap 18 & App. J
MRM
Chap 7
15 Nov Chaos,
Climate Gertner F
Chap 22,
MRM
Chap 8
29 Nov Global
sustainability Hannon
6 Dec Global
sustainability Hannon F
Chap 6, 16, 17
13 Dec Final
exam
* Readings are to be completed by the date for which
they are listed
F is Ford's book; MRM is Meadows et
al.
Models are due before class, the week after they are assigned. The
model file and explanations are to be downloaded to the WebBoard site.
